Dow Jones Drops Nearly 700 Points; When Long-Term Apple Holders Should Sell

A big haircut in the quarterly revenue outlook for Apple sent U.S. shares tail-spinning in what has become a common refrain in stocks today for the past few months. The Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq composite acted as co-leaders of the sell-off, each falling 2.8% to 3% and ending practically at the session's low.

The S&P 500, which dropped 6.2% (excluding dividends) in 2018, sank more than 2.4%. Intense buying in defensive areas of the market — think dairy and meat, property REITs, gold mining and telecom services — provided little solace for most investors. The Dow Jones utility average rose nearly 0.1% after falling almost 1.7% on Wednesday.

Dow Jones industrial component Verizon Communications (VZ), formerly on IBD Leaderboard, edged up 0.3%. The stock is trying to reclaim its rising 50-day moving average. Watch for a potential new base to form.

Curiously, small caps performed relatively better but still caved in price. The Russell 2000 fell 1.3%. The S&P SmallCap 600 fell 1.8%, snapping a five-day winning streak.

Volume ran higher vs. the same time Wednesday on both main exchanges, according to early data, signifying heavy institutional profit-taking.

Perhaps institutions are selling shares of multinational corporations much harder, given the clear evidence mounting in China of a growth slowdown. U.S. and China have called a 90-day truce on the trade war and have until March 1 to find a way to end the festering battle on import tariffs.

Apple Leads Dow Jones Lower

Apple gapped down at the open and remained near session lows, falling as much as 10%. The iPhone, iPad, Macbook and digital services giant cut its revenue guidance for the just-ended fiscal first quarter to $84 billion, down from $91 billion. This means Apple's top line is likely to fall nearly 5% on a year-over-year basis.

Such a drop in the top line would be the first since a 9% decline in the fiscal fourth quarter that ended in September 2016.

The Street, before the bombshell news from CEO Tim Cook shared late Wednesday, had been expecting fiscal Q1 profit to rise 20% to $4.65 a share. That comes after adjusted EPS gains of 18%, 24%, 16%, 30%, 40% and 41% in the prior six quarters. The consensus revenue growth forecast for the December-ended holiday quarter prior to the revised forecast came in at $91.49 billion, up 4%.

As the Stock Market Today column had noted frequently in the past, Apple began its impressive run after staging a clean breakout from a first-stage (or early stage) cup with handle on Jan. 6, 2017. The buy point at the time: 118.12. Since that breakout, the megacap tech rallied as much as 97% to its peak of 233.47 on Oct. 3 last year. Along the way, Apple built a series of additional bases, such as the flat base, and gentle pullbacks to the 10-week moving average. These actions presented new buy points along Apple's 21-month price run.

This breakout coincided with a turnaround in Apple's fundamentals. Exactly two years ago, Apple had reported its first quarter of year-over-year gains in both profits (up 2%) and sales (up 3%) in four quarters.

The complexion of Apple's chart action completely changed during the week ended Nov. 2. The stock cleaved through its 10-week moving average near 220.57, falling more than 4% for the week in volume that shot up 51% above its 10-week average. Apple hardly tried to rally back above this key support-and-resistance level; thus, a key IBD sell signal was born.

Apple Stock Strategy Now: Avoid A Full Round Trip Of Profits

Given the strong advance since that breakout, Apple shareholders who bought at the proper breakout point must draw a line in the sand. A solid gain should never be allowed to turn into a loss.

At the day's low of 142.08, Apple has now fallen 39% from a 233.47 peak.

Typical base patterns such as the cup with handle and double bottom generally show a decline of no more than 30% to 33%. But this often is the case in a bull market. With the bears in control, one can expect some corrections in top growth stocks to exceed that range. Breakouts from deep bases do work, but the probabilities are lower.

Warren Buffett explains one thing people still don't understand about bitcoin

Warren Buffett explains one thing people still don't understand about bitcoin

When it comes to bitcoin, billionaire investor Warren Buffett wants to make one thing clear: Unlike buying stocks, bonds or real estate, buying bitcoin is not an investment.

That's because it lacks intrinsic value, Buffett says.

"If you buy something like bitcoin or some cryptocurrency, you don't have anything that is producing anything," Buffett says in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "You're just hoping the next guy pays more. And you only feel you'll find the next guy to pay more if he thinks he's going to find someone that's going to pay more.

"You aren't investing when you do that, you're speculating."

Famous for his "buy and hold" investment strategy, the Berkshire Hathaway CEO built his company — and his $82.8 billion net worth — backing companies that have substantive value.

"Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value," Buffett wrote in his 1996 letter to shareholders. "If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes."

To be an investment, what you're buying has to be worth something on its own, Buffett says.

For example, "If you buy something [like] a farm, an apartment house or an interest in a business and look to the asset itself to determine whether you've done something — what the farm produces, what the business earns ... it's a perfectly satisfactory investment," Buffett explains to Yahoo Finance. "You look at the investment itself to deliver the return to you.

"If you ban trading in farms, you could still buy farms, and have a perfectly decent investment," Buffett says.

Bitcoin, however, only increases in value by being bought and sold, he argues. Its value comes from what people are willing to pay.

"[I]f you ban trading in ... bitcoin, which nobody knows exactly what it is, people would say, 'Well why in the world would I buy it?'"

"The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke in my view," Buffett said.

In 2017, bitcoin soared from below $1,000 at the start of the year to over $19,000 in December, catching the attention of everyone from J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon to NFL players. Tuesday, bitcoin traded near $8,900 according to CoinDesk's price index.

Buffett sees a bleak future for the digital currency.

"In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending," Buffett told CNBC in January."When it happens or how or anything else, I don't know."

Of course, Buffett has been wrong about backing new technologiesbefore. He missed opportunities to invest in Google and Amazon, decisions he now calls mistakes.

"I did not think [founder Jeff Bezos] could succeed on the scale he has," Buffett said to shareholders in May 2017.

Crypto-enthusiasts argue that Buffet doesn't understand blockchain-based coins, and he has admitted as much.

Still, many other investing experts like CNBC's Jim Cramer, Kevin O'Leary and Tony Robbins, also call buying cryptocurrencies a gamble. They suggest thinking of it like rolling the dice in Las Vegas.

"As long as you can afford to lose everything you put into it, go with it," O'Leary told CNBC Make It in December, 2017.

That mindset is alright with Buffett.

"There's nothing wrong with it if you want to gamble [that] somebody else will come along and pay you more money tomorrow," Buffett tells Yahoo Finance. "That's one kind of game. That is not investing."

Don't miss: Here's how much grad school cost when Warren Buffett graduated in 1951, compared to today

Like this story? Like CNBC Make It on Facebook!

credit:  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/01/warren-buffett-bitcoin-isnt-an-investment.html

John C. Bogle: Wealth and philanthropy

Wealth and philanthropy[edit]

As of February 2017, Bogle has a net worth of $80 million USD according to Business Insider.^[14][15] During his high-earning years at Vanguard he regularly gave half his salary to charity, including Blair Academy and Princeton.^[9]

Awards and honors[edit]

• Named one of the investment industry's four "Giants of the 20th Century" by Fortune magazine in 1999.
• Awarded the Woodrow Wilson Award from Princeton University for "distinguished achievement in the Nation's service" (1999).
• Named one of the "world's 100 most powerful and influential people" by Time magazine in 2004.^[16]
• Institutional Investor's Lifetime Achievement Award (2004).

John C. Bogle: Investment philosophy[

Investment philosophy[edit]

Bogle's innovative idea was creating the world's first index mutual fund in 1975. Bogle's idea was that instead of beating the index and charging high costs, the index fund would mimic the index performance over the long run—thus achieving higher returns with lower costs than the costs associated with actively managed funds.

Bogle's idea of index investing offers a clear yet prominent distinction between investment and speculations. The main difference between investment and speculation lies in the time horizon. Investment is concerned with capturing returns on the long-run with lower risk, while speculation is concerned with achieving returns over a short period of time. Bogle believes this is an important analysis to be taken into account as short-term, risky investments have been flooding the financial markets.^[10]

Bogle is known for his insistence, in numerous media appearances and in writing, on the superiority of index funds over traditional actively managed mutual funds. He contends that it is folly to attempt to pick actively managed mutual funds and expect their performance to beat a low-cost index fund over a long period of time, after accounting for the fees that actively managed funds charge.^[8]

Bogle argues for an approach to investing defined by simplicity and common sense. Below are his eight basic rules for investors:^[11]

1. Select low-cost funds
2. Consider carefully the added costs of advice
3. Do not overrate past fund performance
4. Use past performance to determine consistency and risk
5. Beware of stars (as in, star mutual fund managers)
6. Beware of asset size
7. Don't own too many funds
8. Buy your fund portfolio - and hold it

John C. Bogle: Investment career

Investment career[edit]

After graduating from Princeton in 1951, Jack Bogle narrowed his career options to banking and investments. He managed to land a position at Wellington Fund where he showed great talent that made the manager of the fund, Walter L. Morgan to say that "Bogle knows more about the fund business than we do". Bogle was promoted to an assistant manager position in 1955 where he obtained a broader access to analyze the company and the investment department. Bogle demonstrated initiative and creativity by challenging the Wellington management to change its strategy of concentration on a single fund, and did his best to make his point in creating a new fund. Eventually he succeeded, and the new fund became a turning point in his career. After successfully climbing through the ranks, in 1970 he replaced Walter L. Morgan as chairman of Wellington,^[5] but was later fired for an "extremely unwise" merger that he approved. It was a poor decision that he considers his biggest mistake, stating, "The great thing about that mistake, which was shameful and inexcusable and a reflection of immaturity and confidence beyond what the facts justified, was that I learned a lot."^[6]

In 1974, Bogle founded the Vanguard Company which is now one of the most respected and successful companies in the investment world. In 1999, Fortune magazine named Bogle as "one of the four investment giants of the twentieth century".^[7]

In 1976, influenced by the works of Paul Samuelson, Bogle founded First Index Investment Trust (a precursor to the Vanguard 500 Index Fund) as the first index mutual fund available to the general public. In a 2005 speech, Samuelson ranked "this Bogle invention along with the invention of the wheel, the alphabet, Gutenberg printing".^[8]

Bogle had heart problems in the 1990s and, in 1996, he relinquished his role as Vanguard CEO to John J. Brennan, his handpicked successor and second-in-command whom he had hired in 1982. Bogle had a successful heart transplant in 1996. His subsequent return to Vanguard with the title of senior chairman led to conflict between Bogle and Brennan. Bogle left the company in 1999 and moved to Bogle Financial Markets Research Center, a small research institute not directly connected to Vanguard but on the Vanguard campus.^[9]

John C. Bogle: Early life and education

Early life and education[edit]

John (Jack) Bogle was born on May 8, 1929 in Verona, New Jersey to William Yates Bogle, Jr., and Josephine Lorraine Hipkins.

His family was affected by the Great Depression. They lost their inheritance and had to sell their home, with his father falling into alcoholism which resulted in his parents' divorce.^[3]

Bogle and his twin David attended Manasquan High school on the New Jersey shore for a time. Their academic record there enabled them to transfer to the prestigious Blair Academy on work scholarships. At Blair, John showed a particular aptitude for math, with numbers and computations fascinating him. In 1947, John graduated from Blair Academy cum laude and was accepted at Princeton University, where he studied economics and investment. During his university years, John was determined to examine the mutual fund industry that had not been analyzed before. Bogle spent his junior and senior year working on his thesis "The Economic Role of the Investment Company".^[4]

He earned his undergraduate degree in 1951, and attended evening and weekend classes at the University of Pennsylvania.

John C. Bogle

ohn Clifton "Jack" Bogle (born May 8, 1929) is an American investor, business magnate, and philanthropist. He is the founder and retired chief executive of The Vanguard Group.

His 1999 book Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor became a bestseller and is considered a classic within the investment community.

Seth Klarman: Investment career

Investment career[edit]

Further information on Seth Klarman's leadership of the Baupost Group: Baupost Group

After graduating from business school in 1982, he founded the Baupost Group with Harvard Professor William Poorvu and partners Howard Stevenson, Jordan Baruch and Isaac Auerbach. The name is an acronym based on the founders' names (the name was decided on before Klarman joined the project).^[7] Poorvu asked Klarman and his associates to manage some money he had raised from the selling of his share in a local television station and the fund was started with US$27 million in start up capital.^[7] His starting salary was $35,000 a year, considered low to alternative job offers,^[15] and he later recalled that the other founders "were taking a big risk on a relatively inexperienced person."^[7] Early on in his investment career, he used to badger Goldman Sachs salesmen with questions regarding their options and thoughts on the markets that they were afraid to pick up the phone if they saw that Baupost was calling.^[7]

In February 2008, Klarman was alerted that a London-based hedge fund, Peloton Partners, were forced to liquidate more than a billion dollars worth of their assets, he decided to open up his fund to new investors subsequently raising $4 billion in capital, mainly from large foundations and Ivy League endowments. He believed that there was serious market opportunity for value investors in the coming months and after the collapse of AIG and Lehman Brothers, he invested heavily in the equity markets, sometimes throwing $100 million into stocks a day. While the market was down due to the aftermath of the crisis he purchased many distressed securities and bonds. By early 2009, after J.P. Morgan Chase acquired Washington Mutual as a part of their deal with the U.S. Treasury, and SallieMae's bonds were returning double digit figures he would see serious returns. Overall, Klarman's bond position appreciated 25%, however, during the financial crisis, his fund returned -7% to -13%. Although many hedge funds faced negative returns and low performance during the crisis and its aftermath, Klarman saw increased equity positions and described it as a "fortuitous time" for the fund's capital gains.^[7] The same year he would go on to buy a minority share in the Boston Red Sox, via a stake in Ed Eskandarian.^[7]

In 2009, Klarman began buying distressed credits in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007–2008. He purchased the bonds of CIT Group, a financial holding company based in New York City at 65 cents on the dollar with a yield rate of 15%. After the company went into prepared bankruptcy, as Baupost began lending it money via a loan, Carl Icahn gave a loan of $6 billion to the CIT Group but backed out of the deal a week later. This caused the bonds to speed into prepared bankruptcy and gave the Baupost group securities valued at 80 cents to the dollar for their debt in CIT Group.^[7] Shortly after the CIT deal was finalized, Klarman amassed a stake in a new bio-tech company called FacetBiotech, at an average cost of $9 a share. At the time, FacetBiotech had $17 a share in net cash. Klarman noted that when stocks are spun off of their larger parent companies they become "cheap and ignored."^[7] When Biogen eventually tried a hostile takeover of the company bidding up the price to $14 a share, Abbott Laboratories asked for a $27 per share settlement for acquisition. Klarman's fund finished that year up +27%.^[7]

As of fiscal year 2016, the fund has US$31 billion in assets under management.^[

Seth Klarman

Seth Andrew Klarman (born May 21, 1957)^[2][3] is an American investor and hedge fund manager. He is known as a value investor and is currently the chief executive and portfolio manager of the Baupost Group, a Boston-based private investment partnership he founded in 1982.

He closely follows the investment philosophy of Benjamin Graham and is known for buying unpopular assets while they are undervalued, seeking a margin of safety and profiting off of their rise in price. Since his fund's $27 million-dollar inception to 2008 he has realized a 20 percent compound return-on-investment and as of 2016 manages $31 billion in assets.

In February 2018, Forbes Magazine listed his personal fortune at US$1.50 billion. In 2015, Klarman was listed as the 15th highest earning hedge fund manager in the world.^[1] In 2008, he was inducted into Institutional Investors Alpha's Hedge Fund Manager Hall of Fame.^[4] He has drawn numerous comparisons to fellow value investor Warren Buffett, and akin to Buffett's notation as the "Oracle of Omaha," he is known as the "Oracle of Boston."^[5

Charlie Munger: Wealth and philanthropy

Wealth and philanthropy[edit]

As of February 2018, Munger has an estimated net worth of $1.74 billion according to Forbes Magazine.^[25]

Munger is a major benefactor of the University of Michigan. In 2007, Munger made a $3 million gift to the University of Michigan Law School for lighting improvements in Hutchins Hall and the William W. Cook Legal Research Building, including the noted Reading Room. In 2011, Munger made another gift to the Law School, contributing $20 million for renovations to the Lawyers Club housing complex, which will cover the majority of the $39 million cost. The renovated portion of the Lawyers Club will be renamed the Charles T. Munger Residences in the Lawyers Club in his honor.^{[26][27][28][29]}

On December 28, 2011, Munger donated 10 shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock (currently valued at $288,200 per share, or $2.88 million total) to the University of Michigan.^[30]

On April 18, 2013, the University of Michigan announced the single largest gift in its history: a US$110 million gift from Munger to fund a new "state of the art" residence designed to foster a community of scholars, where graduate students from multiple disciplines can live and exchange ideas.^[31] The gift includes US$10 million for graduate student fellowships.^[32]

In addition to the University of Michigan, Munger and his late wife Nancy B. Munger have been major benefactors of Stanford University. Nancy Munger was an alumna of Stanford, and Wendy Munger, Charlie Munger's daughter from a previous marriage, was also an alumna (A.B. 1972). Both Nancy and Wendy Munger served as members of the Stanford board of trustees. In 2004, the Mungers donated 500 shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock, then valued at $43.5 million, to Stanford to build a graduate student housing complex.^[33][34]

The Munger Graduate Residence opened in late 2009 and now houses 600 law and graduate students.^[35] The Mungers gave a major gift to Stanford's Green Libraryto fund the restoration of the Bing Wing as well as the construction of a rotunda on the library's second floor, and endowed the Munger Chair in Nancy and Charles Munger Professorship of Business at Stanford Law School.^[3][36]

In 1997, the Mungers donated $1.8 million to the Marlborough School in Los Angeles, of which Nancy Munger was an alumna.^[3] The couple also donated to the Polytechnic School in Pasadena and the Los Angeles YMCA.^[37]

Munger has been a trustee of the Harvard-Westlake School in Los Angeles for more than 40 years, and previously served as chair of the board of trustees. His five sons and stepsons as well as at least one grandson graduated from the prep school. In 2009, Munger donated eight shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock, worth nearly $800,000, to Harvard-Westlake.^[3][38] In 2006, Munger donated 100 shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock, then valued at $9.2 million, to the school toward a building campaign at Harvard-Westlake's middle school campus. The Mungers had previously made a gift to build the $13 million Munger Science Center at the high school campus, a two-story classroom and laboratory building which opened in 1995 and has been described as "a science teacher's dream".^[39][40] The design of the Science Center was substantially influenced by Munger.^[3]

In October 2014, Munger announced that he would donate $65 million to the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. This is the largest gift in the history of the school. The donation will go toward the construction of a residence building for visitors of the Kavli Institute in an effort to bring together physicists to exchange ideas as Munger stated,"to talk to one another, create new stuff, cross-fertilize ideas".^[41]

In March 2016, Munger announced a further $200 million gift to UC Santa Barbara for state of the art student housing, tripling the record gift he gave for the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics.^[42][43]

Munger has not signed The Giving Pledge that was started by his partner Warren Buffett and Co-Director, Bill Gates.

Peter Lynch: Investment philosophy

Investment philosophy[edit]

Lynch has written (with co-author John Rothchild) three texts on investing, including One Up on Wall Street (ISBN 0671661035), Beating the Street (ISBN 0671759159), and Learn to Earn. The last-named book was written for beginning investors of all ages, mainly teenagers. In essence, One Up served as theory while Beating the Streetis application. One Up lays out Lynch’s investment technique including chapters devoted to stock classifications, the two-minute drill, famous numbers, and designing a portfolio. Most of Beating the Street consists of an extensive stock by stock discussion of Lynch’s 1992 Barron's Magazine selections, essentially providing an illustration of the concepts previously discussed. As such, both books represent study material for investors of any knowledge level or ability.

Lynch also wrote a series of investment articles for Worth magazine that expand on many of the concepts and companies mentioned in the books

Lynch coined some of the best known mantras of modern individual investing strategies.

His most famous investment principle is simply, "Invest in what you know," popularizing the economic concept of "local knowledge". Since most people tend to become expert in certain fields, applying this basic "invest in what you know" principle helps individual investors find good undervalued stocks.

Lynch uses this principle as a starting point for investors. He has also often said that the individual investor is more capable of making money from stocks than a fund manager, because they are able to spot good investments in their day-to-day lives before Wall Street. Throughout his two classic investment primers, he has outlined many of the investments he found when not in his office - he found them when he was out with his family, driving around or making a purchase at the mall. Lynch believes the individual investor is able to do this, too.^[14]

Lynch has also argued against market timing, stating: "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves."^[15]

Lynch popularized the stock investment strategy “GARP” (Growth At A Reasonable Price)^[16], which is a hybrid stock-picking approach that balances Growth investingpotential with the discipline of Value investing. Many well-known funds now follow the GARP model, ranging from equity funds such as Fidelity Investments Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX) and Lemma Senbet Fund, to index funds such as Russell Indexes iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index^[17].

He also coined the phrase "ten bagger" in a financial context. This refers to an investment which is worth ten times its original purchase price and comes from baseballwhere "bags" or "bases" that a runner reaches are the measure of the success of a play.^[18] A player who hits a home run with bases loaded (all three bases occupied by runners) will bring in ten "bags."

Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch (born January 19, 1944)^[1] is an American investor, mutual fund manager, and philanthropist. As the manager of the Magellan Fund^[2] at Fidelity Investments between 1977 and 1990, Lynch averaged a 29.2% annual return,^[3]consistently more than doubling the S&P 500 market index and making it the best performing mutual fund in the world.^[4][5]During his tenure, assets under management increased from $18 million to $14 billion.^[6]

He also co-authored a number of books and papers on investing and coined a number of well known mantras of modern individual investing strategies, such as Invest in what you know and ten bagger. Lynch is consistently described as a "legend" by the financial media for his performance record,^[6][7] and was called "legendary" by Jason Zweig in his 2003 update of Benjamin Graham's book, The Intelligent Investor.^[4]

Early life and education[edit]

Peter Lynch was born on January 19, 1944 in Newton, Massachusetts.^[1] In 1951, when Lynch was seven, his father was diagnosed with cancer. He died three years later, and Lynch's mother had to work to support the family. During Lynch's time as a sophomore at Boston College, he used his savings to buy 100 shares of Flying Tiger Airlines at $8 USD per share. The stock would later rise to $80 per share.^[8]

In 1965, Lynch graduated from Boston College where he studied history, psychology and philosophy, and earned a Master of Business Administration from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1968